Conflicts in the Sahel region are intensifying, causing adverse effects on local communities. To better understand the localized impacts of violence, we analyzed primary survey data collected from three regions in Mali in collaboration with the NGO Voice 4 Thought alongside conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
In general, we found a strong correspondence between people’s perception of local insecurity and the intensity of violence as measured by ACLED events. However, in some cases, respondents reported major security events in villages without recorded events, while others reported no major insecurity in villages with events present, as shown below.
Map 1. Local perception of insecurity and location of ACLED violent events
These results suggest that the perception of local insecurity involves factors beyond just location. Most respondents were relatively close to an ACLED event, but their experiences of insecurity varied significantly.
Perceived threats from armed attacks differed based on region and livelihood. In Mopti, herders indicated the lowest threat from armed attack and were significantly lower than office workers, while in Ségou, herders reported the highest threat from armed attack, significantly more than farmers and commercial workers.
Political violence in Mali remains influenced by complex factors that vary in space and time, and this study suggests socio-cultural factors may also be a critical dimension of vulnerability to this violence.
This work was presented at the Association for Borderland Studies (ABS) World Conference in Israel in February 2023 and at the American Association of Geographers (AAG) Annual Meeting in Denver in March 2023. Funding is provided by the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC).
By Matthew Pflaum